Motorcycle accident prediction model for junctions on urban roads in Malaysia

The exclusive motorcycle lanes have been implemented along the major trunk roads in Malaysia. The tracks were aimed at addressing motorcycle accident problems along the routes. However, not much work has been done to address motorcycle accident problems at junctions. This paper presents a prediction model for motorcycle accidents at junctions on urban roads in Malaysia. The models were developed using the Generalized Linear Modeling approach. The final model reveals that motorcycle accidents are proportional to the power of traffic flow. The estimates indicate that an increase in non-motorcycles and motorcycles entering the junction is associated with an increase in motorcycle accidents. Non-motorcycle flow on major road had the highest effect on the probability of motorcycle accidents. Approach speed, lane width, number of lanes, junction control, shoulder width and land use were also found to be significant in explaining motorcycle accidents. The final model should allow traffic engineers to establish appropriate junction treatment that is specifically designed for motorcycle lane facilities at junctions.