Estimating the probability of rear-end crashes from a behavioral cellular-based traffic model

In efforts to establish simulation tools that simulate and evaluate the safety of highways and other transportation facilities cellular-based traffic models was improved. The proposed improvements incorporated parameters that affect driver risk-taking and attentiveness behaviors. The likelihood of vehicles to crash in the model was assessed by examining time-to-collision and the rates of vehicles’ decelerations applied to avoid imminent collisions. Simulation results indicated driver behavior has significant impact on the safety of highways. Further, the results revealed a high probability of vehicle crashes in the synchronized traffic flow phase. The implication of these results is for safety engineers to move towards a proactive approach of predicting vehicular conflicts so as to institute corrective measures through micro-simulations as early as in planning and design stages of transportation projects.