Prediction method for dynamics of express delivery service quality elements

The purpose of this study is to shed further light on the dynamics of quality elements and to propose a method to forecast the dynamics of quality elements as per the classification of the Kano model, based on the GM(1,1) model. We consider the advantages of the GM(1,1) model within the grey theory, which is frequently used as a prediction tool and to demonstrate the optimal and unique ability of performing fitting predictions using small data sets and limited information. Further, an empirical study of express delivery industries in China is conducted at four points of time, in 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2013, which provides partial evidence for the existence of several alternative life cycles of quality elements. The result is important to augment the limited amount of research that has attempted to validate the fundamentals of the theory of the dynamics of quality elements in the Kano model.