Y.T. Wang, X.Y. Liu
RThis paper proposes an ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) product seasonal model to forecast the passenger flow of inter-city expressways by analyzing inter-city expressways' importance to future urban development. This paper redefines the holiday passenger flow fluctuation coefficient and proposes combining quantitative and qualitative methods when predicting passenger flow during special periods and establishes a new process for inter-city expressway passenger flow forecasts. The analysis results were conducted with data from passenger flow of the Beijing-Tianjin Expressway in 2016, which verified the prediction accuracy and the feasibility of the model. The new forecasting process enriches the existing research on expressway passenger flow forecasting and provides a good reference for analyzing economic data with obvious trends and real-life seasonal features.
Keywords: inter-city expressway; ARIMA product season model; holiday fluctuation coefficient