F.Q. Pan, Y. Zhang, L.X. Zhang, X.X. Yang, J.S. Yang, X.F. Chen

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Pages: 179-196

To scientifically and objectively evaluate the safety and stability of undersea tunnel traffic system, the risk factors and their coupling effects of undersea tunnel traffic accidents are analyzed from 5 aspects of driver, management, road, environment and vehicle by using the fault tree analysis method. In view of the abrupt evolution characteristics of the undersea tunnel traffic accident risk coupling, human factor and physical factor are taken as control variables, and system safety is taken as the state variable to construct a cusp catastrophe model of undersea tunnel traffic accident risk coupling, and the evolution mechanism of traffic accident risk coupling is explained. Selecting 18 traffic accident risk factors as the bottom indicators, and constructing a risk coupling evaluation indicator system of undersea tunnel traffic accident in 3 levels. The quantitative calculation model of risk factors coupling degree is established following the complementary principle. Combined with the application example, the evaluation results show that the evaluation method of undersea tunnel traffic accident risk coupling based on catastrophe theory is accurate and reliable, which can provide an effective theoretical reference for risk control and accident prevention of undersea tunnel traffic system.
Keywords: undersea tunnel; catastrophe theory; risk factors; coupling effect; risk evaluation

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