X.X. Zhao, X.Y. Liu
A theoretical model of system dynamics for freeway safety is established. According to the factors and sub-factors affecting freeway safety, the factors and sub-factors are assigned by using AHP method. According to the established system dynamics model, with the development of economy and other factors, the safety of freeway in the next 10 years is simulated. The sensitivity analysis of the key factors affecting expressway safety is also carried out. Finally, four conclusions are drawn: (1)Economic improvement will lead to highway safety improvement; (2)Periodic weather impact will always exist;(3) Long driving time is more sensitive to highway safety impact than economic development; (4)Driver safety awareness in the case of continuous investment, growth will also be reduced.
Keywords: freeway; safety; system dynamic